Tua Tagovailoa apparently didn’t take kindly to Brock Purdy challenging him for the throne of the NFL quarterback metrics hierarchy.
But who’s been the best quarterback in terms of Expected Points Added per dropback since the midpoint of last season? And which Pro Football Hall of Fame candidate hit a jaw-dropping low?
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Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like EPA per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 7.
As I wrote this week, it seemed like there were more negative blurbs than normal. There’s a reason for that.
Week 6 yielded a collective -0.08 EPA per dropback and 78.9 passer rating across the league. That’s the lowest collective EPA rate since Week 12 of the 2020 season. And that’s the lowest collective passer rating since Week 16 of the 2017 season.
Nos. 1-8
| PLAYER | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB WK 6 | PSRRT OVR | PSRRTG WK 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.33 (1) | 0.49 (1) | 114.1 (1) | 126.0 (1) | |
0.29 (2) | -0.36 (26) | 111.9 (2) | 55.3 (27) | |
0.23 (3) | -0.05 (14) | 102.8 (4) | 86.7 (11) | |
0.19 (4) | 0.16 (6) | 95.7 (9) | 94.4 (6) | |
0.17 (5) | 0.32 (2) | 105.1 (3) | 107.5 (4) | |
0.16 (6) | 0.07 (9) | 101.7 (5) | 84.0 (13) | |
0.11 (7) | 0.18 (5) | 83.5 (22) | 107.3 (5) | |
0.10 (8) | 0.03 (10) | 96.4 (8) | 82.2 (15) |
Tua, the throne is yours once again. The Miami Dolphins are starting to get used to these outstanding outings by Tagovailoa considering his 0.49 EPA rate against the Carolina Panthers was his third-best clip in 2023 and sixth best in the past two seasons. He also leads the NFL in the following:
- Completion percentage: 71.1 percent
- EPA vs. blitz: 0.44
- Third down conversion rate on passes: 46.7 percent
- Fastest time-to-throw average: 2.28 seconds
- Pressure percentage: 22.7 percent
Sunday marked the first stinker of Purdy’s career. The San Francisco 49ers quarterback ranked No. 1 in EPA rate heading into Week 6. He faced the top-ranked defensive EPA-per-dropback defense — the Cleveland Browns. The Browns got the best of Purdy, who was the second-most pressured QB of Week 6 at 46.7 percent. It was the first negative EPA rate and worst passer rating as a starter in Purdy’s regular-season career.
In the Buffalo Bills’ win over the Giants, Josh Allen produced his lowest EPA rate since last season’s Wild Card win (-0.24) over Miami. It was also his first negative EPA rate of the season.
It might seem ho-hum for Patrick Mahomes right now, even though many quarterbacks across the league would beg for his rates. But the Kansas City Chiefs passer is steadily climbing in EPA rate as the season progresses. He compiled a 0.17 rate in Weeks 1-3 and a 0.21 rate in Weeks 4-6.
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Jared Goff continues to expand the Detroit Lions’ presence on the NFL map. He compiled his best EPA rate of the season in the team’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and his best rate overall since a Week 14 win over the Minnesota Vikings last season. Since Week 10 of last season, Goff leads the NFL in EPA per dropback at 0.23 and ranks second with a 105.6 passer rating.
Here’s a look at the top five EPA rates (regular season) within that time frame:
Justin Herbert had positive EPA rates in all five games for the Los Angeles Chargers this season. And they’re 2-3. Herbert completed 59.5 percent of his passes in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys. It’s the first time Herbert has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in consecutive games (54.2 percent in Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders) since Week 6 and 8 of the 2021 season.
Matthew Stafford’s Week 6 numbers in EPA rate and passer rating stood more in line with a consistent quarterback performance compared to his oddly skewed production in the Los Angeles Rams’ other two wins. Stafford produced his first 100.0-plus passer rating of the season in the win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Should C.J. Stroud’s Week 6 interception even count since the New Orleans Saints’ Zack Baun fumbled the ball right back to the Houston Texans on the return and Stroud threw a touchdown to complete the drive? Stroud didn’t crumble against one of the better defenses in the league despite posting a career-low 48.1 completion percentage in the win. It was Stroud’s fifth straight week with a positive EPA rate.
Nos. 9-16
| PLAYER | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB WK 6 | PSRRT OVR | PSRRTG WK 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.08 (9) | 0.24 (3) | 82.6 (23) | 82.0 (16) | |
0.06 (10) | -0.22 (22) | 91.3 (13) | 56.8 (25) | |
0.06 (11) | N/A | 87.3 (18) | N/A | |
0.06 (12) | 0.24 (4) | 91.0 (14) | 109.3 (3) | |
0.02 (13) | -0.15 (19) | 84.7 (20) | 59.5 (23) | |
0.00 (14) | -0.09 (18) | 90.7 (15) | 69.5 (20) | |
-0.02 (15) | -0.21 (20) | 84.0 (21) | 58.5 (24) | |
-0.04 (16) | 0.08 (7) | 93.0 (10) | 88.6 (9) |
There’s Jimmy Garoppolo, back among the top 10 overall in EPA rate. It’s not always pretty, and now the Raiders quarterback is dealing with a back injury. But here’s a refresher on Garoppolo’s past regular-season rates and rankings:
- 2022: 0.14 (fifth)
- 2021: 0.15 (eighth)
- 2020: 0.09 (not qualified)
- 2019: 0.13 (10th)
Baker Mayfield’s two worst games of the 2023 season have come against the Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. There’s no shame in that. That said, Mayfield yielded 2023 season lows in EPA rate, passer rating and completion percentage (51.4) in the Week 6 loss to Detroit.
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Dak Prescott has been really good in the Cowboys’ last three wins, including the team’s Week 6 win over the Chargers. Prescott tallied a combined 0.19 EPA rate and 111.9 passer rating in wins over the Jets, New England Patriots and Chargers. His Week 6 EPA rate matched a season high he produced against the Jets.
You knew at some point the Eagles would get bitten and the New York Jets defense has befuddled Allen, Mahomes and now Jalen Hurts. The Eagles quarterback amassed his worst passer rating in the Week 6 loss since Week 12 of the 2021 season. Hurts now has four negative EPA rates in only six games this season. That only happened six times all of last year (postseason included).
Geno Smith tallied his worst passer rating of this season in the Seattle Seahawks’ loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s also produced three negative EPA rates in five games in 2023. Smith rattled off six consecutive games with a 100.0-plus passer rating in Weeks 7-10 and 12-13 last season. Since then, he’s gotten to 100.0 or higher only twice in his last 11 games (postseason included).
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Arizona Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs after a solid start to the season. Dobbs amassed a -0.32 EPA rate and 57.6 passer rating in a Week 5 loss to the Bengals and a similarly-poor outing against the Rams.
Thankfully for Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens pass catchers went drop-less in Week 6 after dropping seven passes in Week 5. Jackson produced a favorable EPA rate in the win over the Tennessee Titans in London, but imagine if the Ravens would’ve scored more than one touchdown in six red zone trips …
Nos. 17-24
| PLAYER | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB WK 6 | PSRRT OVR | PSRRTG WK 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.04 (17) | -0.28 (25) | 100.6 (6) | 93.6 (7) | |
-0.04 (18) | 0.07 (8) | 85.4 (19) | 83.2 (14) | |
-0.05 (19) | N/A | 77.3 (29) | N/A | |
-0.05 (20) | -0.59 (28) | 99.0 (7) | 46.6 (28) | |
-0.06 (21) | -0.01 (11) | 90.1 (16) | 119.7 (2) | |
-0.09 (22) | -0.09 (16) | 91.7 (11) | 91.1 (8) | |
-0.09 (23) | -0.49 (N/A) | 91.6 (12) | 36.7 (N/A) | |
-0.10 (24) | -0.24 (23) | 81.3 (25) | 60.3 (22) |
I find it ironic to have the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins and the Saints’ Derek Carr stacked together right in the middle of these rankings. It just feels appropriate, which probably doesn’t make either teams’ faction super thrilled right now. Carr just doesn’t possess the empty passer rating stats like Cousins. The Vikings QB has a league-high 17 dropped passes this season, though.
Russell Wilson yielded the worst EPA rate of his career in the Denver Broncos’ Week 6 loss to the Chiefs. Take that in for a second. It was also the third-lowest EPA rate for a Sean Payton-coached QB in Payton’s head-coaching career. The other two?
- Taysom Hill (-0.63) filled in for an injured Drew Brees in a 2020 win over the Broncos in which Payton dramatically limited the passing game. Denver started WR Kendall Hinton at QB after COVID protocols wiped out its entire QB depth chart.
- Ian Book (-0.83) started in a 2021 loss to the Dolphins in which the Saints QB depth chart was also sidelined because of COVID protocols.
Even while absorbing a league-high 34 sacks in six games, the Washington Commanders might be on to something with Sam Howell. He compiled the best passer rating of his career in the team’s Week 6 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Despite his three TDs, Howell’s Week 6 EPA rate wasn’t as notable, in part, because of his low third-down conversion percentage (20.0) on pass attempts.
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Trevor Lawrence yielded his lowest EPA rate and passer rating of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ three-game winning streak in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts. Oddly, this occurred within the team’s most lopsided win of the streak. And it was a tough day for the Colts’ Gardner Minshew as the fill-in starter for the injured Anthony Richardson.
The Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields was coming off the best two-game stretch of his career with a combined 0.26 EPA rate and 131.1 passer rating in Weeks 4-5. A right thumb injury will be tricky to deal with moving forward. Tyler Bagent and your -0.99 Week 6 EPA rate, come on down!
Nos. 25-33
| PLAYER | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB WK 6 | PSRRT OVR | PSRRTG WK 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.11 (25) | -0.67 (29) | 71.9 (32) | 37.5 (30) | |
-0.13 (26) | -0.04 (13) | 81.3 (24) | 66.5 (21) | |
-0.13 (27) | -0.09 (15) | 79.8 (26) | 88.4 (10) | |
-0.19 (28) | -0.22 (21) | 78.7 (28) | 85.1 (12) | |
-0.20 (29) | -0.26 (24) | 73.4 (31) | 73.5 (19) | |
-0.20 (30) | N/A | 87.8 (17) | N/A | |
-0.20 (31) | N/A | 78.8 (27) | N/A | |
-0.21 (32) | -0.09 (17) | 74.4 (30) | 75.3 (18) | |
-0.23 (33) | N/A | 71.7 (33) | N/A |
Ryan Tannehill produced the worst passer rating of his career in the Titans’ Week 1 loss to the Saints. Now he’s added the third-worst passer rating of his career during the Week 6 loss to the Ravens. You could’ve guessed that his EPA rate was also near a personal low as the second worst of his career.
Was the Desmond Ridder from the Falcons’ Week 5 win just a mirage with a 0.20 EPA rating and 111.2 passer rating? He threw for more than 300 yards and two TDs in Week 6, but added three interceptions as Atlanta lost for the third time in four games. Ridder’s passer rating in the three losses: 70.2, 62.7, 66.5.
Joe Burrow is riding a similar path as Lawrence. Their teams are starting to win more games and yet the metrics suggest it’s not all a product of improved play by either quarterback. It’s the second time the Bengals have won this season with Burrow yielding a -0.09 EPA rate or worse. Burrow has only produced a 90.0-plus passer rating once in the past seven games (postseason included).
Bryce Young displayed the best stretch of play in his career in the Panthers’ loss to the Dolphins in Week 6 while posting a 0.18 EPA rate and 106.5 passer rating. So there seems to be progress in Carolina. Curious about how Young stacks up among rookie QBs through five starts (Young missed Week 3 with an injury)? Since 2000, Young ranks 65th out of 80 QBs in EPA rate and 30th in passer rating. Who’s No. 1 in each category? Ben Roethlisberger and Purdy, respectively.
The Jets’ Zach Wilson tallied a 0.07 EPA rate and 105.2 passer rating in a loss to the Chiefs two weeks ago. Then he posted games with a -0.18 EPA rate and 78.8 passer rating against the Broncos in Week 5 and a -0.26 EPA rate and 73.5 passer rating against the Eagles in Week 6 and won both games?! The Jets will gladly accept the wins no matter Zach Wilson’s play.
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With Deshaun Watson still out with a shoulder issue, the Browns’ P.J. Walker actually yielded a lower EPA rate and passer rating than Purdy and Cleveland still pulled off the upset against the 49ers. That’s probably more shocking than the Zach Wilson outcome.
In the race to the bottom, the Patriots’ Mac Jones leapfrogged Daniel Jones, leaving the New York Giants QB in last place in EPA rate. (Tyrod Taylor had a -0.02 EPA rate and 80.8 passer rating in place of Daniel Jones the loss to the Bills in Week 6.) Pittsburgh Steelers passer Kenny Pickett clings to No. 31 following a bye week.
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Week 7 defense vs. QB EPA matchups
| team | DefEPA/Pass | Opp qb | Epa/db |
|---|---|---|---|
0.34 (1) | Gardner Minshew | -0.10 (24) | |
0.18 (2) | Kirk Cousins | -0.04 (17) | |
0.18 (3) | Jared Goff | 0.17 (5) | |
0.16 (4) | Justin Herbert | 0.16 (6) | |
0.12 (5) | Mac Jones | -0.21 (32) | |
0.09 (6) | Trevor Lawrence | -0.09 (22) | |
0.07 (7) | BYE | ||
0.06 (8) | Lamar Jackson | -0.04 (16) | |
0.06 (9) | Derek Carr | -0.04 (18) | |
0.05 (10) | Matthew Stafford | 0.11 (7) | |
0.05 (11) | Russell Wilson | -0.05 (20) | |
0.05 (12) | BYE | ||
0.01 (13) | BYE | ||
-0.00 (14) | Desmond Ridder | -0.13 (26) | |
-0.01 (15) | BYE | ||
-0.02 (16) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.33 (1) | |
-0.02 (17) | Josh Allen | 0.23 (3) | |
-0.02 (18) | Jalen Hurts | 0.02 (13) | |
-0.03 (19) | Brock Purdy | 0.29 (2) | |
-0.03 (20) | Deshaun Watson* | -0.20 (30) | |
-0.04 (21) | BYE | ||
-0.06 (22) | Joshua Dobbs | -0.02 (15) | |
-0.06 (23) | Kenny Pickett | -0.20 (31) | |
-0.07 (24) | Baker Mayfield | 0.06 (10) | |
-0.07 (25) | Justin Fields* | -0.09 (23) | |
-0.12 (26) | BYE | ||
-0.12 (27) | Sam Howell | -0.06 (21) | |
-0.13 (28) | Daniel Jones | -0.23 (33) | |
-0.18 (29) | Geno Smith | 0.00 (14) | |
-0.19 (30) | Patrick Mahomes | 0.19 (4) | |
-0.19 (31) | Jimmy Garoppolo* | 0.08 (9) | |
-0.29 (32) | Jordan Love | -0.05 (19) |
(Top photo of Jared Goff: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
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